Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 220046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NEW...GENERALLY WEAK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY STILL DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE ARKLATEX
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/MEXICAN PLATEAU...TONIGHT...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED 50-60+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE WITHIN A
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ALABAMA BY THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT STEEPENING OF
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY....BASED ABOVE A LINGERING FRONTAL INVERSION
LAYER.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LINGERING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY /ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GULF COAST VICINITY/ APPEAR LARGELY
SUPPORTED BY WEAK DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AS THIS
INSTABILITY WANES...A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 03/22/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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