SPC AC 220500

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
   OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE....

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
   MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PROMINENT...COLD MID-LEVEL LOW...NOW
   PROGRESSING EAST OF JAMES BAY...WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE
   CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A
   TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN ITS
   WAKE...BRANCHING MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF U.S.
   APPEARS LIKELY TO TREND MORE ZONAL.  WITHIN THE LINGERING STREAM
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
   PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE TURNING EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST.  WITHIN ANOTHER STREAM EMERGING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
   PACIFIC...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
   FORECAST TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

   IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN IMPULSE SHOULD ADVANCE WELL OFF THE
   NORTH ATLANTIC COAST BY THE BEGINNING THE PERIOD. ITS TRAILING
   SOUTHWESTERN FLANK MAY CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD...BUT GENERALLY
   ONLY SLOWLY...THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OHIO AND
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...A SURFACE FRONT...ENHANCED BY WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION-INDUCED COOLING TO ITS NORTH...LIKELY WILL LINGER
   ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.

   ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
   WHILE SEASONABLY MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
   ZONE...LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...AND IT
   REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT SURFACE HEATING
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  FURTHERMORE...THE BELT OF MODESTLY
   STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
   SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.  DESPITE THESE
   POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...30-50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
   /MAINLY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   ENHANCE ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
   WHERE DEEP LAYER LIFT BECOMES MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   SURFACE FRONT.

   ...FRONT RANGE INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DESTABILIZATION NEAR A FRONTAL WAVE
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY MAY PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
   QUESTION IN A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
   FRONT RANGE.  HOWEVER...WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN BOTH AREAS APPEARS
   TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

   ...NORTHWEST...
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING THE INLAND
   MIGRATING TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WEST OF THE
   CASCADES...AND INLAND...ACROSS THE SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGION...AS WELL
   AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OREGON AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
   WASHINGTON/WEST CENTRAL IDAHO.

   ..KERR.. 03/22/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z