SPC AC 301945

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL INTO THE FL
   PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
   ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

   ...SERN U.S...

   EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
   REMAIN.  WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND
   ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
   A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME SHORTLY.  OTHER SHOWERS
   ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN GA AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
   TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..DARROW.. 03/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

   ...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
   ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
   /LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
   THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
   PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
   12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
   GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
   THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
   DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
   BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
   HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
   DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
   NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 
   7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
   THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
   STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
   MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
   A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
   MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
   SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING 
   LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
   MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
   LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
   SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
   PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

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