San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Wichita, KS...Baton Rouge, LA...
2 %
229,305
17,894,900
Houston, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Corpus Christi, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 %
266,362
15,075,191
Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Mobile, AL...
SPC AC 241632
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.
THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.
WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.
ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 04/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z