Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
20,827
4,112,997
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 011256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2015
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF CO...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO. OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...AND OTHER
ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTH
CAROLINA.
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM FROM BAJA
CA TO S TX AND FL. IN GENERAL...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS THE CONUS...IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. A MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS WV-NC WHERE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /MOVING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA EWD TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...CO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...
THE LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z DENVER SOUNDING SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 65-70 F RANGE...MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 750-1250 J/KG AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL DIMINISH...WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS PROBABLE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE
STRONG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HAIL
APPROACHING ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BUOYANCY DIMINISHES AFTER PEAK HEATING
AND WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
..THOMPSON/COOK.. 05/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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