Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
55,492
2,197,662
Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lawton, OK...Frisco, TX...
15 %
138,724
13,641,735
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
SPC AC 081632
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NRN TX AND
SRN OK...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX
SOUTH PLNS INTO MUCH OF OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE CO SEWD INTO MUCH OF
WRN...CNTRL...NRN...AND SW TX....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IL AND IND....
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO E/SE INTO MUCH OF
TX AND THE OZARKS...AND OVER PARTS OF MI AND ERN MO....
...SUMMARY...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...EACH POSING A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SRN CA CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. AT THE SAME TIME...LEAD
IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN NM SHOULD MOVE NE INTO NW TX AND THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN OK/KS EARLY SAT.
AT LWR LVLS...APPROACH OF UPR LOW WILL MAINTAIN BROAD LEE
CYCLONE/TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS AS KS BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BECOMES STNRY OVER SE CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD TEMPORARILY SHIFT EWD WITH
LEAD IMPULSE AND DIURNAL MIXING TODAY...THE FEATURES SHOULD RETURN
WWD TNGT/EARLY SAT. FARTHER E...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LBB ROUGHLY E/ENE INTO THE RED RVR VLY SHOULD REMAIN QSTNRY
TODAY.
...S CNTRL HIGH PLNS E/SE INTO THE RED RV VLY TODAY/TNGT...
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT RICH MOISTURE INFLOW...SFC HEATING...AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/ ALONG AND S OF NW TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LATER TODAY. SOMEWHAT LESSER BUOYANCY WILL EXTEND E/NE ACROSS THE
RED RVR INTO SRN AND ERN OK...AND SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH TO THE TX BIG
BEND. SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR STORMS ALSO SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE
CO...WHERE COOLER MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL SOMEWHAT OFFSET
COMPARATIVELY MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASED STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER W CNTRL AND NW TX TODAY /REF WT 142/...WHERE AMPLE
DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO
ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY NE OR ENE
INTO THE RED RVR VLY REGION AND INTO SRN OK LATER IN THE DAY. THE
STORMS LIKELY WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO A FEW
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE INTO TNGT AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHEN ATOP OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR LOW...WITH A CONTINUING
RISK FOR SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES FROM SUSTAI8NED EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
FARTHER NW...UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF STALLING FRONT AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK WITH SWRN STATES LOW SHOULD YIELD A
SEPARATE FOCUSED AREA OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER SE CO THIS AFTN
AND EVE. THESE COULD PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR
HAIL/HEAVY RAIN AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO A
SLOWLY-MOVING/PERSISTENT CLUSTER.
EARLY SAT...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW AND
RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SVR STORMS
OVER THE TX SOUTH PLNS AND PERHAPS FAR ERN NM. THESE COULD YIELD SVR
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
...IL-IND THIS AFTN/EVE...
SFC HEATING OF MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV
NOW CROSSING THE MS RVR NEAR STL MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
STORM ORGANIZATION...AND PERHAPS A CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY ENHANCED
WIND/POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT OVER PARTS OF IL/IND THROUGH EARLY TNGT.
..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 05/08/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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