Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
MARGINAL
168,319
20,146,725
Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
107,935
7,357,848
Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Mesquite, TX...Waco, TX...
2 %
254,763
25,682,907
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
359,907
31,567,765
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...
5 %
167,066
20,173,754
Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
184,462
19,715,194
Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...
SPC AC 101247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN SD TO NWRN MO...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN OK AND SWRN AR TO CENTRAL
TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SERN SD/SRN MN
TO IL AND CENTRAL/S TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CLOSELY SURROUNDING THE SLGT
RISK...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS COASTAL NC...
...SUMMARY...
VARIABLE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN A BROAD
SWATH ARCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
ACROSS ILLINOIS...THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS. DAMAGING GUSTS...OCCASIONALLY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALL ARE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WAS EVIDENT FROM
NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SSWWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES TO NWRN
MEX...INCLUDING WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEVOLVE GRADUALLY INTO STG
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...BUT WITH 500-MB LOW/VORTICITY CENTER REACHING ERN
SD BY END OF PERIOD. BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- ENHANCING SRN-STREAM
UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX -- WAS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER SONORA AND NRN AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL PIVOT NEWD ACROSS NM AND
W TX TODAY...WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED DCVA ALOFT REACHING NW
TX AND SW OK AROUND 00Z. LATTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX.
AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED OVER S-CENTRAL NEB IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD TO FSD
AREA BY 00Z...THEN OCCLUDE OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING OVER SRN MN.
NEARLY COLLOCATED PAC FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN
NEB...KS AND NRN OK TODAY WHILE SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT FARTHER S
ACROSS SWRN OK AND W-CENTRAL/SW TX. MEANWHILE...POLAR COLD FRONT
INITIALLY OVER WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NWRN TX PANHANDLE...AND NERN
NM...SHOULD MOVE TO CENTRAL KS...NRN/WRN OK...AND SRN TX PANHANDLE
BY 00Z...OVERTAKING PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FROM N-S. POLAR FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE OR STALL TEMPORARILY OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS IN DEFERENCE TO
LEE CYCLONE OVER NWRN NM. LEE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT RESUMES SEWD MOTION...REACHING NWRN IL...SRN MO...SERN
OK...N-CENTRAL TX AND E-CENTRAL NM BY 12Z. WARM FRONT...NOW EVIDENT
OVER NRN MO AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...SHOULD MOVE NWD TO SRN
LOWER MI...NRN IL AND CENTRAL/NWRN IA BY 00Z. BY END OF
PERIOD...WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH SRN ONT..CENTRAL LM...TO OCCLUSION
TRIPLE POINT OVER SWRN WI/SERN MN AREA.
...MO VALLEY...IA...MID MS VALLEY REGION...
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO NRN PORTION OF BROAD OUTLOOK
AREA...INCLUDING EMBEDDED ENH RISK...FOR THIS FCST CYCLE...AS IT
WILL REMAIN MOST DISTANT FROM EFFECTS OF SRN-PLAINS MCS ACTIVITY.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE FCST TO COOL AND STEEPEN DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE APCHS. WINDS ALOFT ALSO ARE FCST TO
STRENGTHEN AMIDST HEIGHT FALLS...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DEEP
SHEAR...CONTERMINOUS WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS REGION E-NE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH
CORRIDORS OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT THROUGH AFTN. CONVERGENCE NEAR THOSE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THROUGHOUT AFTN...WITH
BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS AUGMENTING BOTH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER...MAY
DEVELOP ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SRH COMMONLY 200-400 J/KG WHERE
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ARE FOUND. AS SUCH...SUPERCELLS
AND BOWS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SUPERCELLS OFFERING GREATEST
HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL.
RELATIVE MIN IN SVR THREAT -- BUT STILL NOT TOO LOW TO LEAVE IN
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK FOR NOW -- APPEARS FROM CENTRAL MO SWD THROUGH
OZARKS WHERE AIR-MASS INFLUENCES FROM CURRENT AND PRIOR MCS ACTIVITY
FARTHER S WILL BECOME MORE CRUCIAL TO LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
CHARACTERISTICS. MORE ON THAT MCS ACTION BELOW...
... SERN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX REGION...
ONGOING COMPLEX OF TSTMS FROM SRN OK ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX THEN SWWD
ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL POSE RISK OF OCNL STG-SVR GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ON ITS ERN AND TRAILING PORTIONS...AS IT
MOVES ENEWD ACROSS MORE OF OK AND NE TX THIS MORNING. REF SPC WW
153 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM INFO.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP
WILL HAVE THREE MAIN INFLUENCES ON SVR THREAT THROUGH AFTN...
1. DIRECT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REMAINING ACTIVITY
ENCOUNTERS DIABATICALLY HEATED FETCH OF MOISTURE-RICH WARM SECTOR
AIR -- CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S F SFC DEW POINTS --
THAT HAS BEEN ONLY MINIMALLY PROCESSED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS NE
TX...SERN OK AND SWRN AR.
2. DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG RELATED
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE ALIGNED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID/UPPER WINDS. THOUGH THIS NORMALLY WOULD
SUGGEST MESSY/TRAINING/QUASI-LINEAR MODES...STG DEEP SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FIELD ACCOMPANYING BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AS
WELL.
3. STABILIZING INFLUENCE IN WAKE OF MIDDLE-NRN PART OF MCS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AT LEAST -- DURATION OF WHICH WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON
HOW SOON TRAILING CONVECTIVE PLUME CAN SHUT DOWN AND ALLOW
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SEGMENT TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT NWD. THIS RENDERS
SVR POTENTIAL ALONG DRYLINE/FRONT VERY CONDITIONAL ACROSS NW TX...OK
AND PERHAPS AS FAR N AS PORTIONS KS/MO AS PREFRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE
TRAJECTORIES EMANATE FROM CONVECTIVELY MODULATED AIR MASS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG OR JUST
N OF SW-NE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER TX...PERHAPS LINKING UP WITH
SIMILARLY ORIENTED CONVECTION MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT OVER AR. SUCH CONVECTION WOULD OFFER SPORADIC HAIL AND
STG-DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR ALONG NWRN RIM OF 35-45-KT LLJ.
...COASTAL NC...
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TS ANA FIRST LACKED MUCH DEEP CONVECTION
OVERALL AND THEN HAS LACKED THE SORT OF DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
STRUCTURES WITHIN SPIRAL CONVERGENCE BANDS THAT WOULD FOSTER
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED IN ERN
SEMICIRCLE PER GENERAL INCREASING OF LTG AND COOLING OF IR CLOUD-TOP
TEMPS OVER PAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SMALL BOWS/LEWPS...OR A TORNADO
TODAY WHILE MOVING INLAND CLOSE TO COAST. MRGL-SVR OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED AWAY FROM SMALL/CENTRAL CORE REGION OF THIS CYCLONE...WHERE
MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP STRUCTURE AND WEAKER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AND SHOULD CONTINUE.
REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR TRACK/INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AND LATEST
WATCH/WARNING INFO REGARDING ANA.
..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 05/10/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z