Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
113,600
6,548,066
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Fort Smith, AR...
2 %
148,653
7,400,051
St. Louis, MO...Amarillo, TX...Beaumont, TX...Columbia, MO...Tyler, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
155,762
9,132,695
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Beaumont, TX...
Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Garden City, KS...Weatherford, TX...
SPC AC 241245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN LA AND AR. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
TN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.
...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..HART/GLEASON.. 05/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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