SPC AC 010552

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS AND ERN ID...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN AND
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
   MONTANA...EASTERN IDAHO AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. A MORE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL WILL
   EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AS
   WELL AS ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND
   CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
   FROM ERN MT SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ENHANCED LIFT WITH THIS WAVE
   WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MT INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS. TO THE E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGING MOISTURE NWD
   AND INTERACTING WITH A LEE TROUGH FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO THE
   HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF DAYTIME STORMS WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE SERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
   UPPER LOW PROVIDING COOL AIR ALOFT AND A MOIST AIR MASS.

   ...ERN ID/MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...
   STRONG HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION
   ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM OREGON/ID INTO MT AND WY DURING THE DAY
   WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ELONGATING HODOGRAPHS. A RAPID INCREASE
   IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN ID AND SWRN MT.
   A MIXED-STORM MODE WITH HAIL AND WIND IS LIKELY...PROGRESSING EWD
   INTO ERN MT DURING THE EVENING.

   FARTHER E...A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE
   LEE TROUGH INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS WHERE A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS
   ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT.

   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL ARE LIKELY ACROSS AN
   EXTENSIVE AREA FROM ERN WY ACROSS ERN CO AND INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX
   DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE IN A
   RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE...WITH CELLS LIKELY DISSIPATING DURING THE
   EVENING WHEN CIN INCREASES.

   ...MUCH OF THE SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM BY MIDDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SWD
   INTO FL. WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK IN MOST CASES...SUGGESTING ONLY
   MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELL HAIL AND WIND ON A LOCALIZED
   LEVEL. 

   ONE AREA THAT MAY EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY GREATER RISK OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM NRN VA INTO MD AND SERN PA WITHIN A WEAK
   LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
   STRONGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED STORM INTENSITY
   MAY NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME GIVEN LACK OF
   SHEAR.

   ..JEWELL/COOK.. 06/01/2015

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