Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Chicago, IL...Philadelphia, PA...Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...
SPC AC 081549
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NY/VT...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
FROM TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK AND
WESTERN VERMONT. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...NY/VT...
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NY EAST
OF BUF. RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...BUT SEVERAL OPERATIONAL AND CAM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GROWS UPSCALE AND
POSES SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
DESTABILIZATION TRENDS LEND UNCERTAINTY HOW ORGANIZED THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE IN THIS REGION...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK AND
WIND PROBABILITY AREAS NORTHWARD TO COVER THE THREAT.
...WV/PA/MD/VA...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS BACK ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IA...SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION ARE NOTED THIS MORNING. ONE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN KY. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STORMS CROSS THE APPALACHIANS...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS TO
PARTS OF PA/MD AND NORTHERN VA. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR MORE
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. RELATIVELY STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND A RISK
OF A TORNADO OR TWO FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
...KY/TN...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING TODAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN KY
AND MUCH OF TN. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING A FEW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER REGION OF MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER VEERED...BUT STORM
INTERACTIONS AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS COULD PROVIDE A RISK OF A
LOCALIZED TORNADO OR TWO.
...NM/WEST TX...
SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
THE STRONGER STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A MARGINAL CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
..HART/GLEASON.. 06/08/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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