Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
29,204
457,316
Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Watertown, SD...Hereford, TX...Fergus Falls, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 141254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN NEB THROUGH ERN SD AND
WRN AND NRN MN...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AREA...OHIO VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE PRIMARILY
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. OTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
...SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...
A LARGE...MOIST WARM SECTOR RESIDES OVER THE OH VALLEY SOUTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM PA WNWWD THROUGH SRN MI
AND SRN WI WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.
NUMEROUS CLOUD BREAKS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 1500 J/KG DUE TO POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOB DATA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE SERN
STATES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CHANNEL OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY DEEP
LAYER WINDS WITH GENERALLY 25-35 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE SFC LAYER AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WITHIN
A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...ERN SD INTO WRN MN...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH
CNTRL SD INTO NWRN NEB. CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE POST
FRONTAL REGION PERSISTS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED MCV
OVER NRN SD. TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BUT MAY
STILL POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL SHORT TERM THREAT FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. REF SWOMCD 1014 FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...WITH FULL SUN DOWNSTREAM...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED FRONT. WHILE THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST
FRONTAL...SUFFICIENT /30-35 KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ESTABLISHMENT OF SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EAST OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NNWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN TX WITH UPPER 50S FARTHER WEST INTO ERN NM BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF UP TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NM PROMOTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND A SLOW MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH NM. WHILE
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL/JIRAK.. 06/14/2015
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z