SPC AC 151950

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WY AND ERN ID...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MO AND
   OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
   CONTINENTAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
   ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SEVERE HAIL AND
   WIND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A FEW
   STORMS WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
   MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   STRONG GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY THROUGH
   EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

   ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE EXISTS OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS
   AREAS OF STORMS FORMING. ONE ZONE IS ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS ALONG A
   SURGING OUTFLOW. AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES
   AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO INDICATE VIGOROUS/TALL STORMS FORMING
   ACROSS WRN MS AND ERN LA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
   WIND THREAT AND HAVE EXPANDED THE 5 PERCENT WIND INTO THESE AREAS.

   TO THE W...A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   EXISTS ALONG A WEAK/STALLED FRONT FROM W TX INTO CNTRL OK. IT
   APPEARS NOW THAT THE MAIN THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
   WITH ANY WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. A RELATIVELY
   GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS FROM NERN OK/SRN MO EWD
   WHERE WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT STRONGER.

   ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   LITTLE LARGE-SCALE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITH DOMINANT RIDGE
   OVER THE SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN KEEPING THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS CONFINED
   TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. RESIDUAL SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM
   THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC...WHILE A BROAD/LOW
   AMPLITUDE TROUGH CONTAINING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PROGRESSES
   SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN.

   DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION/STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY
   WIDESPREAD OVER THE CONUS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RCKYS E TO THE
   ATLANTIC...ALONG WRN/NRN SIDES OF UPR RIDGE.

   ...NRN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS...
   SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER ERN
   ID/WRN WY TODAY WITH LEAD IMPULSE OF BROADER SCALE UPR TROUGH. AMPLE
   MOISTURE/DEEP WLY SHEAR ON SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
   FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND EVEN A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO
   CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL/WIND...POSSIBLY SWD INTO NE UT. FARTHER
   E...MOIST...LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF LATEST NRN PLNS FRONTAL
   SURGE...COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION
   OF UPR IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SVR AFTN/EVE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL WY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLNS. WITH PW
   APPROACHING 1 INCH AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...A FEW
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   COULD OCCUR. MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND S INTO NRN CO. THE WY
   STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A SMALL...EWD-MOVING MCS LATE TNGT.

   ...MIDWEST/OH VLY TO MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTN/EVE...
   A BELT OF ENHANCED...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW ACCOMPANYING A SRN
   STREAM UPR IMPULSE NOW IN IA WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST
   TODAY...WITH 30-40 KT 700-500 MB OVER SRN WI/NRN IL INTO SRN MI/NRN
   IND. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT GIVEN VERY HIGH PW
   OVER REGION /AOA 2 INCHES/...SETUP COULD YIELD OCCASIONAL SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS AS SFC HEATING ENHANCES LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION.

   FARTHER E...SOMEWHAT WEAKER THOUGH STILL DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   700-500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WARM SECTOR E TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
   CST. A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS/STORM
   CLUSTERS OVER THAT REGION...ESPECIALLY INVOF NNW-SSE WARM/STNRY
   FRONT OVER THE LWR HUDSON VLY INTO NJ/ERN DELMARVA...WHERE LOW-LVL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO WILL BE ENHANCED. WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   AND THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE EWD ATOP COOLER AIR E OF
   BOUNDARY SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT.

   ...LA/TX GULF CST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
   A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR ISOLD...LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS
   AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF SRN LA AND THE UPR
   TX GULF CST LATER THIS PERIOD AS GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM PROGRESSES
   NWWD. ACTIVITY ON OUTER FRINGES OF SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW
   DOMINANT THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LOCALLY
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.

   ...WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF SOMEWHAT GREATER MID-LVL
   LAPSE RATES ON WRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE MAY YIELD A FEW STRONGER
   MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM PARTS OF KS/OK
   SWWD INTO SW TX.

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