SPC AC 170600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO WV...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY TO WESTERN VA/NC...AND FROM THE EASTERN
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO
   PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO WESTERN
   VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS
   SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINA.  MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AS THE REMNANTS
   OF BILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   WEAK E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO PRIMARILY ERN WY/SERN MT...SWD ACROSS
   THE FRONT RANGE OF CO...AND PERHAPS INTO ERN NM COMBINED WITH W/NWLY
   500-MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
   ACROSS SERN MT...ERN WY INTO PARTS OF WRN SD/WRN NEB WHERE BULK
   SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER WITH VALUES UP TO 50 KT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES INCREASING TO 1 INCH NWD FROM ERN NM/CO TO FAR ERN
   WY/MT...AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING BENEATH THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
   INITIAL ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREADING
   E/SEWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT
   EXTENDING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB WHERE BULK SHEAR
   WILL BE THE STRONGEST.  DEPENDING ON THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING SLY
   LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH FOR
   AN MCS TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS WRN SD/NEB AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN KS
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

   ...OH VALLEY TO WEST VIRGINIA...
   LINGERING STORMS ATTENDANT TO THE CURRENT SLOW EWD-MOVING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS OF SRN
   IND...NRN KY INTO SRN OH.  THESE STORMS AND CLOUDINESS COULD LIMIT
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH EVEN
   SOME DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES/ SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
   INSTABILITY.  A LACK OF CAPPING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
   PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A BROAD AREAS WITH
   ACTIVITY MOVING E/SEWD.  DEEP WLY WIND PROFILES AND 30-40 KT WIND
   SPEEDS AT 500 MB SUGGEST MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG
   WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TX...ERN HALF OF OK AND WRN AR...
   LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
   T.S. BILL WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TX NNEWD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
   SERN OK BY 12Z THURSDAY.  DESPITE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND
   EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER...35-50 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF BILL WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUCH
   THAT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..PETERS/GLEASON.. 06/17/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z