Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Raleigh, NC...St. Louis, MO...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
23,559
148,668
Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
15 %
378,927
41,271,367
Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
5 %
369,274
30,838,997
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
398,981
40,544,379
Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
5 %
336,084
25,635,637
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...
SPC AC 251224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SERN STATES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE TIDEWATER REGION. ANOTHER
AREA OF SEVERE STORMS YIELDING LARGE HAIL AND SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE
WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
LOWER FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO OZARKS. A COUPLE OF MORE PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN...ONE
OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY. THE OTHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RELATED TO THE LATTER
IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE DELMARVA BY 12Z/FRIDAY. A W-E
ORIENTED FRONT --LOCALLY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW-- TRAILING
THIS MIGRATORY CYCLONE WILL EXTEND WWD TO A DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER
ERN CO...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SWD
THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING FROM SERN MT AND NERN WY INTO WRN SD AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE CNTRL MT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY
SEVERE HAIL.
EARLY-DAY STORMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN
BY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITH THE UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME FROM NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TO PALMER
DIVIDE. AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES WITH A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT STORMS WILL COALESCE INTO
SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OR A LARGER-SCALE MCS WITH A CONCENTRATED RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING FROM PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO NERN CO AND
NWRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A NOCTURNAL MCS HAS BECOME ELONGATED IN W-E FASHION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH WRN
OH AS OF 12Z. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION AND RECENT
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT GUST
FRONT/COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS WILL REACH THE VA PIEDMONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER A NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT
AND LEE TROUGH. THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500+ J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING LINE CONVECTIVE MODES POSSIBLE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
EWD INTO THE TIDEWATER THIS EVENING...SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FARTHER WEST...FROM THE LOWER MO ACROSS THE OH VALLEYS...A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE ERN REACHES OF AN EML ORIGINATING
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW-MODULATED SURFACE FRONT.
WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY GIVE RISE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE OVER IL-IND SECTION OF
THE FRONT WHERE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT...A MIXTURE OF MULTICELL AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR...YIELDING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
BY TONIGHT...MULTIPLE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS MOIST
INFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 06/25/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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