Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
42,890
8,883,696
Atlanta, GA...Columbia, SC...Charleston, SC...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
34,566
1,284,877
Fort Smith, AR...Muskogee, OK...Sherman, TX...Paris, TX...Russellville, AR...
5 %
323,840
24,621,546
Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...
SPC AC 031255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA AND SC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
CAROLINA CST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLNS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
BROAD...POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
NATION...MAINTAINING SEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW FROM THE LWR MS VLY
TO THE CAROLINA CST. UPSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...WEAK RIDGE WILL
REMAIN QSTNRY ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS...WITH AN UPR LOW OFF
THE CNTRL CA CST.
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EWD IN BELT OF
ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALONG
NRN FLANK OF GRT BASIN/RCKYS RIDGE. AT LWR LVLS...A WEAK SFC WAVE
WILL TRACK ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE LWR-MID OH VLY. HOWEVER...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER
S... EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
...AL/GA INTO SC/NC TODAY/EARLY TNGT...
UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY EVE...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 40-50 KT 700 MB WLY FLOW
SPREADS E ACROSS GA AND SC. UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH
CONTINUED SFC HEATING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS NOW
EXTENDING FROM NRN AL INTO UPSTATE SC. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION OF 1.75 INCH PW WITH SEASONABLY
STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL LWR TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO N/S-ORIENTED BOWS WITH A RISK
FOR DMGG WIND. IN ADDITION...WEAK BUT SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS
INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE CAROLINAS MAY
SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE LOW-LVL SRH TO YIELD A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
...RED RVR VLY E INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ONGOING TSTMS FROM SE OK/FAR N TX EWD INTO AR/NRN MS MAY POSE A
SPORADIC/MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD FOSTER NEW CONVECTION ON THE FRINGES OF THE LINGERING
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER N ACROSS NE OK
AND NRN AR...CLOSER TO FRONT TRAILING SW FROM OH VLY SFC WAVE. ALL
OF THE STORMS COULD POSE A LOCALLY DMGG WIND THREAT GIVEN HIGH PW
VALUES. STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BUT
VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...THROUGH EARLY EVE.
...CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLNS LATER TODAY...BENEATH MODEST NWLY MID-LVL FLOW. COUPLED WITH
LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT AND AMPLY MOIST SELY LOW-LVL WINDS... SETUP
SHOULD YIELD SCTD AFTN/EVE TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND LEE
TROUGH E OF THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK...WITH PERHAPS WEAK DCVA OVER WY/NRN CO ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
IMPULSE NOW NEAR THE BIG HORNS. VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY
YIELD WDLY SCTD STORMS WITH HAIL...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 07/03/2015
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