Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
54,545
1,318,487
El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Rapid City, SD...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...
SPC AC 071955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX INTO SE OK...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL
EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CHANGE TO CURRENT OUTLOOK HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL
RISK AREA OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INCLUDING SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX. REF
SWOMCD 1318 FOR MORE INFORMATION. OTHERWISE HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A LOW
PROBABILITY TORNADO RISK AREA FOR NCNTRL TX THROUGH SCNTRL AND SE
OKLAHOMA FOR THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND AUGMENTS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN A
MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
..DIAL.. 07/07/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN WHILE PROGRESSING EWD INTO ONTARIO AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER
LOW WILL EDGE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST WHILE A SERIES OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE LOCATIONS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE FRONT
SETTLING SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER SW...A FRONTAL WAVE
WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK.
THE SEGMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS LOW WILL STALL AND PERHAPS DEVELOP SLIGHTLY NWD ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU REGION. OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF MT INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS BY EVENING.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO OFFSET POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER 12Z RAOBS/ TO SUPPORT
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
THIS BOUNDARY AND FAVORED TERRAIN MAY FOCUS ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT
IS FURTHER CONDITIONED BY A WEAK PERTURBATION TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH MT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND RELATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
IND INTO OH AND KY WHICH WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
TODAY. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST
AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG
THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. WEAK CAPPING
OBSERVED BY 12Z RAOBS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO RETREAT NWD INTO CANADA WITH THE DE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-ORDER
STORM MODES. NONETHELESS...THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WATER LOADING OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS AND AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL.
...SERN OK/N-CNTRL AND NERN TX INTO AR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
STRONGER HEATING ALONG THE ERN/SRN PERIPHERY OF WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY
CLOUDS WILL PROMOTE POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SOME ENHANCEMENT
IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AS
SUCH...PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MARGINAL RISK AT
20Z ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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