Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 081259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NE NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLNS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO
THE LWR OH VLY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
MODEST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY THU...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW NOW
NEARING THE CNTRL CA CST. TWO DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM...ONE
NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND THE OTHER OVER ERN OK...WILL BE OF
GREATEST IMPACT AS FAR AS SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED THIS
PERIOD.
AT LWR LVLS...FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE SRN PLNS TO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS
YESTERDAY WILL REMAIN QSTNRY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WSW INTO THE
OZARKS TODAY. WEAK SFC WAVE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NE OK SHOULD TRACK ENE TO NEAR ST LOUIS THIS EVE AND INTO CNTRL OH
EARLY THU. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING...SW PART OF THE FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER CNTRL/N TX LATER AS A LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLNS.
...SRN HIGH PLNS LATE TODAY INTO TNGT...
INCREASING SLY FLOW E OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN OVER ERN NM AND W TX TODAY...WITH PW
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF EML. COUPLED
WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING...SETUP SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG IN SE CO...AND VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG IN THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE/E CNTRL NM BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND MODEST
ASCENT WITH SRN RCKYS UPR IMPULSE TOGETHER SHOULD FOSTER SCTD AFTN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM/SE CO AND FAR W TX. WNWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR
SHOULD VARY FROM ABOUT 25 KTS IN SE NM/FAR W TX TO AROUND 35 KTS IN
NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. A TORNADO OR TWO
ALSO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. THE
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP EWD DURING THE
EVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AS SLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENS AND BRINGS WITH IT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO DIURNALLY WEAKEN...AND MAY
TEMPORARILY INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE EVE...AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES
INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR ISOLD SVR
HAIL/WIND.
...OZARKS TO LWR OH VLY...
SOME INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY NE OK UPR IMPULSE AS IT
CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY INTO
TNGT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL TRACK N OF QSTNRY FRONT EXTENDING WSW-ENE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN ASCENT WILL MOST LIKELY GLANCE
PARTS OF NRN AR...SE MO...AND SRN IL LATER TODAY. AND...WHILE RICH
MOISTURE /PW AOA 2.00 INCHES/ IS PRESENT...CLOUDS AND WEAK MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR WEAK BUT SLIGHTLY-BACKED LOW-LVL
FLOW NEAR THE FRONT AMIDST RICH MOISTURE AND 30+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A
NARROW ZONE ENHANCED LOW-LVL SRH THAT COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...WERE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SCENARIO...AN
UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.
..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 07/08/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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