Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 291639
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD
TO THE GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE PARENT LOW OVER WRN
ONTARIO MOVES NWD TOWARD JAMES BAY THROUGH 30/12Z. ELSEWHERE...WEAK
FLOW/RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS REGION WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK/RATHER NONDESCRIPT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL --
LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
...GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION -- AND WWD ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE KS/OK AREA...ALONG A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. STORMS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS A
WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THIS REGION.
THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- DESTABILIZING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING -- WILL
FUEL THE CONVECTION...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER
CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A
FEW STORMS CAN CLUSTER TOGETHER AND EVOLVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
ORGANIZED COLD POOL. WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INVOF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA...CONFIDENCE THAT
SUCH A SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL/CONCENTRATED WIND
RISK PRECLUDES ANY CATEGORICAL/PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE.
..GOSS/GLEASON.. 07/29/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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