New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
273,712
65,497,740
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 301623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS -- AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND RIDGING RESIDES
OVER THE S CENTRAL AND WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND SWD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM ERN NY
SSWWD INTO WRN VA...INVOF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE...WITH A FEW
STRONGER CELLS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- AIDED BY MODERATE /AROUND 30 KT/
MID-LEVEL WLYS. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
...THE SOUTH...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WHILE MOST STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED /20 KT/
MID-LEVEL NLY/NELY FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO
MULTICELL-TYPE STORMS AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.
..GOSS/GLEASON.. 07/30/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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