SPC AC 171630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
   HIGH PLNS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PNS E INTO THE
   MID MS VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
   COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
   ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE LIMITED
   SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA...SOUTH
   ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW AND N CNTRL STATES WILL AMPLIFY AS
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ID/WRN MT CONTINUES ESE INTO WRN WY THIS
   EVE...AND INTO WRN SD/NEB EARLY TUE. FARTHER E...DISTURBANCES NOW
   OVER ERN NEB AND THE IL-IND BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD. AT
   THE SFC...WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE
   MID-MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TODAY.
   THE WRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE SE ACROSS WRN NEB AND
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS EARLY TUE AS A LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER ERN CO
   BY THIS EVE CONTINUES ENE INTO S CNTRL NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


   ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
   APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING ID/MT IMPULSE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
   THIS EVE OVER THE NE CO AREA INVOF STALLED FRONT. BEFORE THAT
   TIME...MOIST LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND N
   CNTRL HIGH PLNS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
   50S F IN NE WY TO THE MID 60S OVER CO...BENEATH THE NERN EXTENT OF
   EML. SFC HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE GREATEST IN ERN CO AND ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS IN WY/FAR SRN MT...SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO
   1500-2500 J/KG IN CO...AND TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN NRN WY.

   CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EXPECTED WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE
   MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR MID-LATE AFTN STORM INITIATION WILL BE NEAR
   THE FRONT RANGE IN CO/SE WY...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE SFC FRONT IN ERN
   CO. A SEPARATE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE BIG HORNS OF
   NRN WY/SE MT...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE WILL BE
   GREATEST.

   DEEP SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS
   THE REGION AS 500 MB WLY FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KTS BY THIS EVE
   /WITH CORE OF STRONGEST FLOW OVER E CNTRL-SE WY/...AND TO ABOVE 50
   KTS EARLY TUE EWD INTO NEB. WITH LOW-LVL WINDS REMAINING
   E/SELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF STALLED FRONT...SETUP COULD
   SUPPORT LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
   TORNADOES. THE GREATEST OVERALL THREAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LARGE
   HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. A FEW DMGG GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL
   EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE E/SE-MOVING MCSS THIS EVE...WITH THE ACTIVITY
   IN ERN WY LIKELY BEING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT
   WITH THE CLUSTERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS WRN/SW NEB AND NW KS THROUGH
   EARLY TUE AS THE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD...AND SSWLY LLJ
   STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 30 KTS.

   ..CORFIDI/COHEN/GUYER.. 08/17/2015

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