Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
55,171
4,191,337
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Amarillo, TX...Springfield, MO...Norman, OK...
SPC AC 190100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH
CNTRL AND NERN OK INTO SERN KS AND CNTRL MO...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN WI THROUGH EXTREME
ERN IL AND WRN IND...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUES FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO EXTREME WESTERN
INDIANA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD MID EVENING.
FINALLY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
...CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK INTO ERN KS AND SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL MO...
EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN IA SWWD THROUGH
NERN KS INTO NWRN OK AND THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS FROM TOPEKA KS...NORMAN OK...AND
SPRINGFIELD MO INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE. STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40+ KT/ EXISTS IN VICINITY OF
KS THROUGH NRN MO PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A
MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM
NRN AND CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH SERN KS INTO CNTRL OK. BOTH MULTICELL
AND SUPERCELL MODES ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
...HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN
NEW MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK LATER THIS
EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTING
FROM THE INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...SERN WI...EXTREME ERN IL AND WRN INDIANA...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN WI INTO EXTREME
ERN IL AND MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AT LEAST A MODEST RISK FOR MAINLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO WRN INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST
OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.
..DIAL.. 08/19/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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