Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
7,797
339,739
Lubbock, TX...Levelland, TX...Brownfield, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 220106
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS AND ADJACENT EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO NEAR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SOUTHERN-BRANCH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST OK/KS BORDER...WITH A
SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND
00Z AMA SOUNDING SUGGEST THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT STORM INFLOW FOR SUSTENANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS
EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASING CAP PER 00Z MAF
SOUNDING...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SEPARATE...WEAKER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KS...MAY HAVE AIDED IN STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
CO/KS BORDER. THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING STORM IN
THIS AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWEST OK TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE SUSTENANCE OF ANY SOUTHWARD MOVING STORMS.
...CENTRAL/EASTERN MT TO WESTERN ND...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /60-90-METER 500-MB FALLS PER 12 HOURS/ ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT AS A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
REACHING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR SOON ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS PRIOR
TO 12Z.
..PETERS.. 08/22/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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