Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 311627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AZ...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS...AS WELL AS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ENEWD FROM ND/SRN
MANITOBA TO WRN ONTARIO...WELL TO THE E OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
THAT WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW. A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE DESERT SW. FARTHER E...A DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM
THE OH VALLEY TO TX WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER
INDIANA...AR...AND S TX. A SEPARATE VORTICITY MAX WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN EJECT NEWD/ENEWD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WITH A
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SC/NC
COASTS ALONG A STALLED FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA...BUT THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL
BE LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
...CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A LOW-END TRANSITION-TYPE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AS A WEAK SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD TO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND WRN AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REMAIN ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ...AND THE MODIFIED
12Z PHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG WITH DCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE RIM WITH OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN A STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 08/31/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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