Chicago, IL...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Grand Rapids, MI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
197,708
30,174,865
Chicago, IL...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Grand Rapids, MI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
197,745
29,456,825
Chicago, IL...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Grand Rapids, MI...
SPC AC 081610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
LOWER MI INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER A BROAD
SWATH FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...OFFERING THE RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI...ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY...INTO KS/OK AND NORTH TX. THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AND ARE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON MERGED
PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN POORLY
ORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
WHILE POCKETS OF HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION...THE RISK OF ANY SPECIFIC CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A RISK
OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS HAIL.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/08/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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