Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 111255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VLY WSW
INTO N TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S GA/NRN FL...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...THE
MID-SOUTH...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
WRN U.S. RIDGE/MS-LWR OH VLY TROUGH PATTERN SHOULD AMPLIFY THIS
PERIOD AS JET STREAKS NOW TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER NRN BC/AB INDUCE
STRENGTHENING AND SSE ACCELERATION OF DOWNSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW
OVER THE MB-ONT BORDER. BY 12Z SAT EXPECT THE MB-ONT IMPULSE TO BE
CENTERED OVER ERN IA...WHILE A SERIES OF LESSER DISTURBANCES FURTHER
WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE GENERALLY ESE ACROSS THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY AND OZARKS INTO W
TX...WILL ADVANCE STEADILY E/SE THROUGH SAT. PARTS OF THE
FRONT...AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT...MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG TSTMS LATER TODAY.
...PARTS OF THE TN/LWR MS VLYS WSW INTO NRN/CNTRL TX THIS AFTN...
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS
IN IL/MO/AR/OK SHOULD DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES GENERALLY SEWD
LATER TODAY. BY MAX HEATING...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM ERN MIDDLE TN SW THROUGH NRN AL INTO N CNTRL MS....AND THEN WSW
INTO N TX. A NARROW...RESIDUAL EML PLUME SHOULD OVERLIE THIS
REGION. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND WEAK DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPR IMPULSE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD STRONG TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN 25-30 KT CYCLONIC MID-LVL FLOW
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN THE TN VLY...AND HIGH
PW/STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES IN TX. ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR
WEATHER...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED.
...S GA/NRN FL THIS AFTN...
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY ARISE ALONG W-E
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE LYING PARALLEL TO BELT OF ENHANCED /30 KT/
WLY MID-LVL FLOW OVER NRN FL/S GA. COUPLED WITH 2.00 INCH PW...SETUP
COULD FOSTER A FEW WET MICROBURSTS.
..CORFIDI/COOK.. 09/11/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
