Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 191956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION....
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STORMS COULD POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...WRN NY TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WITH
STRONGER TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. 40-50 KT SWLY
WINDS NOTED IN THE BUF VAD DATA ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGEST ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE GUSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT ACROSS THE CAT 1 SEVERE RISK AREA.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MARGINAL WILL BE KEPT...THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE WEAKER.
THE ONLY CHANGES FOR THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY TRIMMING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA IN OH AND THE GENERAL TSTM LINE FROM AR TO OH.
..PETERS.. 09/19/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
...NY/PA/OH...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NY/PA/OH TODAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT
OVERALL...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE FORECAST
TODAY.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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