Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 010530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2015
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA...THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS...AND IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EMANATING N FROM AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR
SONORA SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS. HEIGHTS WILL DAMPEN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
IMPINGING OF A TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST/ INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN VALLEY. BY
EVENING...A SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NWRN UT
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING E ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
...S GA/N FL...
IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN TROUGH...MERIDIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MAINLY AFTER PEAK DIABATIC HEATING.
SCATTERED LATE-DAY TSTMS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY INTENSIFY AS
THIS OCCURS...BUT THE BULK OF THE SPEED INCREASE SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE UPPER PART OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
MAGNITUDES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL
WINDS. WITH NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AFTER SUNSET...THE
PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
HIGHLIGHT THIS OUTLOOK.
...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...
A PLUME OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR LATE-DAY TSTMS FROM THE PIKES PEAK AREA TO THE RATON
MESA...APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED TSTMS
WITH SMALL HAIL.
...CNTRL/NRN NV...
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIABATIC
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE-DAY
CONVECTION. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BE
MOISTURE-LIMITED WITH PW VALUES AOB A HALF INCH...WITH THE BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. WHILE
STRONG SPEED SHEAR MAY OCCUR AMID THIN/MEAGER MUCAPE AND YIELD WEAK
MID-LEVEL ROTATION...PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL APPEAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN AREAL DELINEATION.
..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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