SPC AC 011249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2015

   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO 
   EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA REGION...THE
   LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
   BASIN.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
   SMALL...ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK AREAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE/UPPER-AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME LESS
   AMPLIFIED OVER WRN CONUS...AS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF
   CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE CA.  THAT CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY AS ELONGATED/S-N VORTEX WITH LONG AXIS NEAR
   127W -- WILL BREAK DOWN INTO STG OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.  THAT TROUGH
   SHOULD REACH NWRN NV AND PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN CA BY 00Z...REACHING
   SRN ID AND ERN/SRN NV BY 12Z.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN NV.  

   FARTHER E...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER OH VALLEY SWD TO NRN MS
   IS DEVELOPING CLOSED 500-MB CIRCULATION IN EVV-PAH VICINITY.  THIS
   LOW SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS WRN TN...REACHING WRN AL BY END OF
   PERIOD.  BY THEN...ASSOCIATED CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME RATHER
   EXPANSIVE...WITH CLOSED 500-MB ISOHYPSE CURVING OVER LOWER
   MI...AR...SC AND NRN GULF.  SMALL/WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
   NOW OVER SERN SK SHOULD MEANDER SEWD OVER NWRN ND TEMPORARILY BEFORE
   WEAKENING FURTHER AND MOVING BACK NWD OVER SERN SK AS OPEN-WAVE
   TROUGH. 

   AT SFC...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM OFFSHORE
   ACK SWWD ACROSS COASTAL SERN NC/ERN SC...MS RIVER MOUTH...AND TX
   COASTAL BEND.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD OVER NRN GULF WHILE BECOMING
   QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS SRN ATLC COASTAL PLAIN...AMIDST BROADER-SCALE
   ISALLOBARIC RESPONSES TO BOTH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
   PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN NEAR BAHAMAS.  AT
   11Z...SFC TROUGH WAS DRAWN FROM JOAQUIN WWD ACROSS BAHAMAS THEN NWWD
   OVER ATLC WATERS E OF FL COAST...TO FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER SRN
   GA.  SEE LATEST NHC BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
   FCST FOR JOAQUIN.  

   ...S GA/N FL...
   SFC TROUGH MAY SHIFT SWWD SOMEWHAT ACROSS NRN/ERN FL AND EXTEND
   THROUGH SFC FRONT OVER SRN/WRN GA...AS LOW-LEVEL LIFT INCREASES ON
   BOTH SIDES OF FRONT IN RESPONSE TO APCHG MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. 
   WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THROUGH
   AND FRONT...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN...SOME
   PERSISTING AFTER DARK.  STRONGEST ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS ALOFT OVER
   SFC WARM SECTOR SHOULD WAIT UNTIL LATER IN PERIOD WHEN SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY IS NOT AS GREAT.  A FEW STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MOST
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION...BUT SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM.

   ...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
   EVENING.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THIS AREA AROUND
   00Z...RESULTING IN RELATIVE WEAKNESSES IN BOTH LAPSE RATES AND FLOW
   ALOFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.  STILL...ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL
   HAIL AND STG GUSTS MAY OCCUR GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/LIFT IN
   LOW LEVELS...STG SFC HEATING...AND SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER
   40S TO MID 50S F ALONG AND W OF MOIST AXIS NOW EXTENDING FROM NW TX
   TO ERN CO.  

   ...NWRN/N-CENTRAL NV...SERN ORE...SWRN ID...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN AND MOVE
   NEWD BEHIND SFC CYCLONE...OFFERING SPORADIC STG GUSTS AND HAIL APCHG
   SVR LIMITS.  SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO WEAK/ISOLATED FOR OUTLOOK ATTM. 
   SFC MOIST AXIS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM CENTRAL CA NEAR SAC...NEWD
   ACROSS NRN SIERRA AND NWRN NV TO NEAR BOI.  AS AFOREMENTIONED
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APCH THIS REGION TODAY...EXPECT
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT...MANIFEST IN
   BAROCLINIC-LEAF SIGNATURE IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS
   INCREASING DEEP SHEAR...TO OVERSPREAD REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. 
   THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH MUTED/GRADUAL DIABATIC HEATING BENEATH
   CLOUD COVER...SHOULD YIELD AROUND 100-300 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID/LATE
   AFTN.  THOUGH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES...WEAK BUOYANCY AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

   ..EDWARDS/COOK.. 10/01/2015

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