Las Vegas, NV...Henderson, NV...Paradise, NV...Sunrise Manor, NV...North Las Vegas, NV...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
70,131
2,426,409
Las Vegas, NV...Henderson, NV...Paradise, NV...Sunrise Manor, NV...North Las Vegas, NV...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
82,509
2,586,610
Las Vegas, NV...Henderson, NV...Paradise, NV...Sunrise Manor, NV...North Las Vegas, NV...
SPC AC 181239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN CA AND THE
LWR CO VLY...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LOW/TROUGH NOW ENTERING NW CA EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE THIS
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC AMPLIFIES SE
TOWARD THE WA/ORE CST. IMPULSE IN THE CA TROUGH NOW CROSSING
CNTRL/SRN CA SHOULD PIVOT NE ACROSS NV LATER TODAY/TNGT...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT BROADENING AND ESE PROGRESSION OF LARGER-SCALE WRN
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL
AND ERN U.S. IN WAKE OF TROUGH DEPARTING THE N ATLANTIC CST THIS
EVE.
...LWR CO VLY/WRN GRT BASIN TODAY INTO TNGT...
SEASONABLY-RICH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR CO VLY AND
ADJACENT SW PART OF THE GRT BASIN INTO MON...WITH PW REMAINING AOA 1
INCH FROM SRN CA NEWD INTO SRN NV AND WRN AZ. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE CNTRL/SRN CA UPR
IMPULSE...SETUP SHOULD FOSTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE TODAY INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...SRN NV...NW
AZ...AND SW UT.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SSWLY MID-LVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST...WITH 25-30 KT 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 40 KTS AT 500 MB. THIS FLOW WILL...HOWEVER...BE SUFFICIENT
FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...WITH A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STRUCTURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AT
THE SAME TIME...WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...MID-LVL
COOLING/ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE WILL ASSIST DESTABILIZATION.
OVERALL SETUP WITH RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE AND LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSWLY FLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH A TENDENCY TO BACK-BUILD. COUPLED WITH
COOLING MID-LVLS AND DIURNAL HEATING...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD
YIELD HAIL AND STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND THROUGH EARLY
TNGT...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.
..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 10/18/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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