New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
59,801
5,086,619
New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
59,948
5,092,661
New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 010539
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2015
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION...
...SUMMARY...
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NRN STREAM WILL AFFECT THE NRN
U.S. THIS PERIOD -- ONE AS IT SHIFTS QUICKLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AS IT DIGS SEWD OUT OF
THE NERN PACIFIC AND REACHES THE PAC NW/NRN CA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IN THE SRN STREAM...A LARGE TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER TX IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...CROSSING THE SABINE AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE
WRN U.S. AS THE NERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
MEANWHILE...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS TX. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. EXPANSIVE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF ATTM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY -- REINFORCED BY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ATTM
OVER THE WRN GULF PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL HINDER POTENTIAL FOR
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. DESPITE A SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...RISK WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TEMPERED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONTAMINATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE MAIN AREA OF SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL
-- WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INITIALLY OVER SERN LA/SRN MS AND THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
AR AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY INTO WRN GA. HERE...50
TO 70 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPREAD ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS -- YIELDING SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL MAINTAIN MRGL SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT PRECLUDED ATTM DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC CONCERNS.
..GOSS/COHEN.. 11/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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