Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
184,814
18,192,119
Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 %
292,757
35,408,993
Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Laredo, TX...
SPC AC 051638
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR OH VLY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPR MS VLY...WRN GRT LKS...AND LWR OH VLY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
RCKYS/HIGH PLNS TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT ENE INTO THE WRN GRT LKS BY
12Z FRI. LEAD EMBEDDED UPR IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHEARING NNE ACROSS
MN LATER TODAY...WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NM
ACCELERATES NE INTO CNTRL KS/NW OK THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR CHICAGO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER MN WILL
PROGRESS STEADILY E/SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS
TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS...LWR OH
VLY...SRN OZARKS...AND N TX EARLY FRI. OVERALL SET-UP WILL YIELD
SEVERAL AREAS OF SVR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT...
SFC HEATING...MODERATE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF NM UPR VORT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING
STORMS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX NNE INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK TODAY. WITH 700-500 MB MEAN SW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
60 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH NUMEROUS STORMS
EXPECTED...PREDOMINANT SVR THREAT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH
MUCH CERTAINTY. SOME RISK WILL...NEVERTHELESS...EXIST FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
/SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG./. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO LATE TNGT AND MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE
INTO NE TX AND PARTS OF AR WITH A CONTINUING THOUGH DIMINISHING RISK
FOR SVR WEATHER.
...CNTRL/ERN AR TO LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA MAY ARISE LATER TODAY INTO TNGT ON ERN
FRINGE OF WAA TSTM BAND NOW IN PLACE FROM NE TX INTO N CNTRL AR.
STLT AND GPS PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW TO 2 INCHES/ POISED TO
OVERSPREAD REGION AS WIND FIELD APPRECIABLY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
CONTINUED ENE ADVANCE OF NM UPR TROUGH /850-700 MB FLOW AOA 50 KTS/.
THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SW-NE
ORIENTED SQLN...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/LOW-AMPLITUDE BOWS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE DEEP SHEAR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THUS...A
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND
EVENTS LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI.
LWR MO VLY TO UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRI...
A THIRD AREA OF POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER MAY ARISE THIS AFTN ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM WI/IA SSW INTO ERN KS...WHERE LIMITED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
AND SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST SFC HEATING. AS NM
UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THIS EVE...COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY FOSTER SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN E/NE ACCELERATION OF
THE STORMS AS MID-LVL WINDS INCREASE TO AOA 75 KTS. WHILE BUOYANCY
WILL BE LIMITED...ABOVE-AVERAGE SFC TEMPS ALREADY IN PLACE SUGGEST A
PERHAPS BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE THAT AN EXTENSIVE...NARROW...LINE OF
FORCED CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE/PERSIST...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND NEWD INTO THE PARTS OF IL..IND AND MI.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/05/2015
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z