Nov 5, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 5 16:38:36 UTC 2015 (20151105 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20151105 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151105 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 183,385 17,936,342 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
MARGINAL 294,401 35,691,943 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20151105 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 87,930 10,551,889 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
2 % 223,338 18,464,906 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20151105 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 184,814 18,192,119 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 292,757 35,408,993 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20151105 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 62,089 9,458,631 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 156,566 12,865,477 San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Laredo, TX...
   SPC AC 051638

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1038 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS INTO
   THE OZARKS AND LWR OH VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX NORTHEAST INTO
   THE UPR MS VLY...WRN GRT LKS...AND LWR OH VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
   FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
   KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
   MISSOURI.  MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   RCKYS/HIGH PLNS TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT ENE INTO THE WRN GRT LKS BY
   12Z FRI. LEAD EMBEDDED UPR IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHEARING NNE ACROSS
   MN LATER TODAY...WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NM
   ACCELERATES NE INTO CNTRL KS/NW OK THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR CHICAGO BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER MN WILL
   PROGRESS STEADILY E/SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS
   TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS...LWR OH
   VLY...SRN OZARKS...AND N TX EARLY FRI. OVERALL SET-UP WILL YIELD
   SEVERAL AREAS OF SVR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

   ...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT...
   SFC HEATING...MODERATE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF NM UPR VORT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING
   STORMS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX NNE INTO
   CNTRL/ERN OK TODAY. WITH 700-500 MB MEAN SW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
   60 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH NUMEROUS STORMS
   EXPECTED...PREDOMINANT SVR THREAT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH
   MUCH CERTAINTY. SOME RISK WILL...NEVERTHELESS...EXIST FOR A COUPLE
   TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
   /SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG./. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
   OR MORE CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO LATE TNGT AND MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE
   INTO NE TX AND PARTS OF AR WITH A CONTINUING THOUGH DIMINISHING RISK
   FOR SVR WEATHER.

   ...CNTRL/ERN AR TO LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...
   A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA MAY ARISE LATER TODAY INTO TNGT ON ERN
   FRINGE OF WAA TSTM BAND NOW IN PLACE FROM NE TX INTO N CNTRL AR.
   STLT AND GPS PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW TO 2 INCHES/ POISED TO
   OVERSPREAD REGION AS WIND FIELD APPRECIABLY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
   CONTINUED ENE ADVANCE OF NM UPR TROUGH /850-700 MB FLOW AOA 50 KTS/.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SW-NE
   ORIENTED SQLN...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/LOW-AMPLITUDE BOWS MOVING
   PARALLEL TO THE DEEP SHEAR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THUS...A
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   EVENTS LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI.

   LWR MO VLY TO UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
   FRI...
   A THIRD AREA OF POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER MAY ARISE THIS AFTN ALONG COLD
   FRONT FROM WI/IA SSW INTO ERN KS...WHERE LIMITED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
   AND SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST SFC HEATING. AS NM
   UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THIS EVE...COMBINATION OF INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY FOSTER SOME
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN E/NE ACCELERATION OF
   THE STORMS AS MID-LVL WINDS INCREASE TO AOA 75 KTS. WHILE BUOYANCY
   WILL BE LIMITED...ABOVE-AVERAGE SFC TEMPS ALREADY IN PLACE SUGGEST A
   PERHAPS BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE THAT AN EXTENSIVE...NARROW...LINE OF
   FORCED CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE/PERSIST...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND NEWD INTO THE PARTS OF IL..IND AND MI.

   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/05/2015

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