Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 160055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT OVER THE WRN
U.S. WHILE A SERIES OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOCATED OVER THE
N-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHEAR NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
CNTRL PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY. ISOLD STORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT WILL POTENTIALLY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGEST ZONE OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE DESERT SW LATE TONIGHT.
FARTHER E OVER THE OK/TX REGION...SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY MAY
CONCENTRATE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES OVER THE S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY. A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ/WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
TSTMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
..SMITH.. 11/16/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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