Dec 2, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 2 16:39:51 UTC 2015 (20151202 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20151202 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151202 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20151202 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20151202 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20151202 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021639

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 AM CST WED DEC 02 2015

   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND
   SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
   TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE ALONG THE
   SERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
   GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA
   AND FAR SRN SC THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FL
   PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS BOTH
   AREAS OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

   ..ROGERS.. 12/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z