Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
IOWA...AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
..BROYLES.. 12/20/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD/NEWD TO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ERN CO
NEWD TO ERN SD/SRN MN AS OF 16Z WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION BY EARLY MON MORNING AS THE FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT AT THE
SFC AND AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THESE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD
TO THE MID MS VALLEY.
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
MARGINAL FORECAST INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 100-400 J/KG/ SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER S
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED
GIVEN MEAGER FORCING TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS THIS REGION.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
TO ACHIEVE NECESSARY HEIGHTS TO INDUCE CHARGE SEPARATION EVEN WITH
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED WITH THIS
UPDATE.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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