The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight....
Please read
the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip.
Columbus, OH...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Virginia Beach, VA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Norfolk, VA...Birmingham, AL...
SPC AC 240106
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PART OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OH...THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN
TN...TO EXTREME NORTHWEST GA...NORTHERN AL...AND NORTHEAST MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM
SOUTHERN OH TO NORTHERN GA...CENTRAL AL AND EAST-CENTRAL MS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
SOUTHERN OH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA...EASTERN
NC AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SC...
...SUMMARY...
THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...ADJACENT EXTREME SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION IN NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI THROUGH UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE SLOWER
MOVEMENT...EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z THU.
...NORTHERN PORTION OF MS/AL/GA TO SOUTHERN OH...
STRONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 50+ KT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO MIDDLE TN AND
NORTHERN AL. IN THESE LOCATIONS AND INTO NORTHEAST MS...THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED...GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ORIENTED ACROSS THE BAND OF STORMS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DISCRETE STORMS. VERY LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AS OBSERVED
WITH THE BNA 00Z SOUNDING /SFC-1 KM SRH NEAR 600 M2 PER S2/ FAVORS A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS THE BROKEN BAND OF STORMS MOVES
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO
KY...THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/AL...BANDS OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHERE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS.
...NORTHEAST SC/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS A BAND OF CONVECTION ADVANCES TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING.
..PETERS.. 12/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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