Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 291919
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
ACROSS THIS REGION IS MINIMAL THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER REASONING.
..DARROW.. 12/29/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 500 MB
OVER AZ INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO
MID-MS VALLEY...ESTABLISHING A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN
AND CNTRL PART OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PRESENT
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NERN GULF COAST WILL STALL WITH THE
SRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO FAR SERN LA TONIGHT.
...CNTRL GULF COAST TO CAROLINAS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AMIDST A POOR-LAPSE-RATE AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION.
STRENGTHENING WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SHIFTING NWD THROUGH THE SHELF WATERS OF THE N-CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TSTMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS GA
INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL...THOUGH THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
| 
)
