SPC AC 221723

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST U.S. AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD REACH
   MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS -- ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
   FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND ALONG A
   STRIP OF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPLEX/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
   U.S. FRIDAY...WITH A FAST-MOVING TROUGH WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF
   SPLIT FLOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN STATES THROUGH
   THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   DESERT SW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SWD AND BEGIN TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
   FLOW FIELD...WHILE RIDGING TO THE N OF THIS FEATURE EXPANDS EWD FROM
   THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN CA/THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   COUNTRY.  THE MAIN ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
   THE SOUTHEAST U.S./COASTAL CAROLINAS...AS A WEAK LOW OVER THE N
   CENTRAL GULF ADVANCES NEWD ACROSS THE GA VICINITY AND EVENTUALLY
   BEGIN TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

   ...PARTS OF N FL/THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
   WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE...A HIGHER THETA-E
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL/SRN GA
   AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
   HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...CONVECTION IS
   PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW-TOPPED AND GENERALLY WEAK -- DESPITE A
   FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS
   UNLIKELY...WITH ANY SEVERE RISK LIKELY COMPRISED OF MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH A
   SUSTAINED/RELATIVELY STRONGER UPDRAFT.  GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO
   EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO N FL/SRN GA
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  LOW-END RISK MAY EXTEND 
   NEWD TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...DEPENDENT UPON A
   SLIGHTLY INLAND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY
   NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

   ..GOSS.. 01/22/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z