Jan 23, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 23 17:25:33 UTC 2015 (20150123 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150123 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150123 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150123 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231725

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
   FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
   VICINITY.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL FEATURE A WRN
   RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
   OVERALL CHANGE ON THE LARGE SCALE.  ON THE SMALLER SCALE...A STRONG
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE QUICKLY
   INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.  MEANWHILE...SECONDARY
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST
   TO DIG RAPIDLY SEWD INTO THE N CENTRAL U.S./UPPER MIDWEST -- THUS
   HELPING TO MAINTAIN LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL/DEPARTING FEATURE.

   AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO LIE OFF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE NC OUTER BANKS VICINITY AND INTO
   CENTRAL FL.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK/SUB-SEVERE UNTIL
   MOVING OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE MORNING...AND THE FL ATLANTIC
   COAST THROUGH MIDDAY.  ELSEWHERE...WITH STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR
   PREVAILING ACROSS THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE NOT EXPECTED.

   ..GOSS.. 01/23/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z