Jan 27, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 27 17:01:37 UTC 2015 (20150127 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150127 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150127 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150127 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271701

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
   WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING
   FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
   WYOMING/COLORADO ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BEING FORCED
   SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE
   SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC STREAM AHEAD OF IT...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO VERY
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION BASED WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
   EVENING.  AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OR BANDS OF
   SHOWERS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IN GENERAL...STILL DO NOT
   INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN
   APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

   OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
   MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS AND LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION.

   ..KERR.. 01/27/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z