SPC AC 151726

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL AND GULF COAST STATES. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
   OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE
   PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   SHOULD QUICKLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY
   TUE...WHILE AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE SHIFTS S/SE ALONG THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN/ROCKIES TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL INDUCE
   WEAK CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR THE SABINE
   VALLEY TO GA/SC BY MON NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
   SWWD FROM THE CYCLONE AND MARCH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

   ...MS/LA...
   EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE EMANATING FROM A STOUT ANTICYCLONE NEAR LK
   SUPERIOR HAS CONFINED MODIFIED MOISTURE TO THE FAR WRN GULF.
   ALTHOUGH THIS MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE IN BREADTH AS THE
   RIDGING BREAKS DOWN...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MODEST
   IN QUALITY WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS LIKELY ONLY REACHING 10-12 G/KG.
   POOR MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL FURTHER
   INHIBIT APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT AMIDST STRENGTHENING LATE DAY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY YIELD A
   DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BAND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
   JUXTAPOSITION OF NEAR 50-KT 700-MB WLYS WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF
   MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY MAY YIELD A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
   RISK AROUND 22-01Z. THIS RISK WILL BE PREDICATED ON SUFFICIENT
   SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TO
   SPATIALLY DELINEATE SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/15/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z