SPC AC 021730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MS INTO TN AND
KY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS...TN AND A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO EASTERN
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL REACH THE
MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY A FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE NERN STATES SWWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SRN MO THEN SWWD
INTO SWRN TX. THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
AND TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY...
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS/ CURRENTLY RESIDES
FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREA.
HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED
NWWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES...THUS KEEPING THE MOIST
AXIS FAIRLY NARROW ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WHERE LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED. MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE
FROM AOB 1000 J/KG FROM TN INTO KY TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SWWD
EXTENT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX. OBSERVED ROAB DATA FROM 12Z
THU INDICATE A LAYER OF WARM AIR OVER TX THAT WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE
THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...RESULTING IN A
CAP OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THUNDERSTORMS /A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE/ WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
IN VICINITY OF FRONT OVER THE OZARKS REGION WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED CAPPING ISSUES IN WARM SECTOR...MOST
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO FRONTAL
ZONE. DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
BOTH DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODES ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO KY IF STORMS CAN
MOVE/DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EWD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
...SRN THROUGH ERN TX...
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THIS
REGION...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE POTENTIAL CAPPING
ISSUES...WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
FORCING WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE
WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..DIAL.. 04/02/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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