SPC AC 051728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT SUN APR 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MO AND
   MID-MS VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHWEST U.S. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM THE
   MID-MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONUS. A
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST BEFORE
   TURNING EWD EARLY TUE MORNING. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED FROM N-CNTRL KS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...AND A SFC LOW
   DEEPENS OVER NWRN KS. 

   ...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY...
   ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MON EVENING OVER THE MID-MO
   VALLEY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT
   LLJ. AN INFLUX OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE /PW VALUES OF 1-1.3 INCH/
   BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH 40
   KT OF CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG TO
   SVR NOCTURNAL STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE LLJ
   IS EXPECTED VEER INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...FOCUSING ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL ALONG THE ERN EDGE
   OF THE EML PLUME. 

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   SCATTERED TSTMS FROM THE LOWER-MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS MS/AL DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   COULD EVOLVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DIURNAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND DIFFUSE/WEAK
   FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR INTRODUCTION OF
   SVR PROBABILITIES. 

   ...SOUTHWEST TX...
   A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STRONG
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT GENERALLY WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ISOLATED COVERAGE OF TSTMS WILL BE LIMITING
   FACTORS.

   ...OK/KS...
   CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TSTM INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG A DRYLINE
   BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK. ALTHOUGH STRONG
   HEATING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK LARGE-SCALE
   SUBSIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND CINH ARE
   EXPECTED TO HINDER TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..ROGERS.. 04/05/2015

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