SPC AC 111941

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX...

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS.

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI...AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO
   SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  ADDITIONAL  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL TRACK FROM ERN KS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES
   ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITHIN A MORE
   AMPLIFIED NRN-STREAM...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
   ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH A CLOSED
   LOW/TROUGH TRACKING EWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND THE SWRN STATES.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN STREAM TROUGH
   WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...MID MS VALLEY TO NRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY.

   ...NRN OK/CENTRAL-ERN KS/WRN MO/ERN NEB/WRN IA/SRN MN...
   AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS
   INTO SERN NEB AND NWRN MO AT 12Z...WITH SOME MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LEAD...WEAK
   MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION.  A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   /AROUND 8 C PER KM/ WILL EXTEND E/NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
   THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY WHICH WILL CAP THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE DAY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD BENEATH THE CAP
   AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WARM SECTOR. LINGERING CLOUDS FROM EARLY DAY TSTMS IN ERN KS TO NWRN
   MO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM-SECTOR LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER
   GREATER DESTABILIZATION...ASIDE FROM NEAR THE FRONT ITSELF.

   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
   NWRN IA AND SRN MN...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   THIS AREA ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT...FROM SWRN MN INTO NWRN IA AND
   PERHAPS ERN NEB...AS THE CAP WEAKENS.  FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
   KS TO NRN OK...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER ON THE WRN EXTENT OF
   EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
   HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...GIVEN
   NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS...MAY RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
   IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO NWRN MO AND
   NWD TO SRN MN.

   ...SRN TX...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM TX EWD ALONG THE
   GULF COAST GIVEN MOIST SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GREATER
   POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN TX INTO THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY.  THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SPREADING EWD WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AT OR EXCEEDING
   1.5-1.75 INCHES/ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
   STRENGTHENING WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NRN MEXICO
   CLOSED LOW SUGGEST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

   ..PETERS.. 04/11/2015

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