May 7, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 7 06:20:54 UTC 2015 (20150507 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150507 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150507 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 80,855 4,351,673 Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
SLIGHT 167,764 11,509,564 Dallas, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 258,564 23,700,246 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150507 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 108,290 2,910,112 Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
30 % 72,796 4,549,109 Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
15 % 177,381 11,414,704 Dallas, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
5 % 254,551 23,488,772 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...St. Louis, MO...
   SPC AC 070620

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO SERN CO...MUCH OF
   SRN KS AND WRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
   SERN CO TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE COAST OF NERN SC AND
   SERN NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST WILL
   CROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY
   SATURDAY MORNING. A BELT OF 30-60KT CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW WILL PERSIST
   FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST WHILE A HIGH OVER
   LOW BLOCKING REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR/OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
   THE DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE STREAM SYSTEM
   NOW EJECTING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL SETTLE IN
   QUASI-STATIONARY FASHION FROM MICHIGAN SWWD TO NEAR KS/OK
   BORDER...AND THEN WWD/NWWD FROM KS TO SERN CO WHERE IT WILL LIE
   ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE.

   PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACH OF MID/UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
   INDUCE DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW FORMATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   /TX-OK PANHANDLE AREA AND POINTS ESE/ DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   ADDITIONALLY...A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR FROM TX TO OK...AND NORTH INTO PARTS OF CO/KS AND MO
   DURING THE DAY.

   CIRCULATION OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE
   THIS PERIOD. A MARGINAL TSTM WIND/ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT
   MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   SCENARIO ACROSS TX/OK APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
   BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE
   PRESENCE OF NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGES UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD.
   SEGMENT OF A WEAKENING SUB-TROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT
   NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
   GREAT BASIN. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENT
   MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
   WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE AND LIKELY EXTEND IN POCKETS AS FAR NORTH AS
   THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. FURTHERMORE...LAPSE
   RATE REGENERATION IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR DAY CONVECTIVE EPISODES
   SHOULD BE EASILY ACHIEVED GIVEN FLOW REGIME EMANATING OFF THE HEATED
   MEXICAN AND SRN ROCKIES ESCARPMENT.

   CLUSTERS OF DECAYING/WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIST OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
   WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND MORNING MAXIMUM OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/CLOUDS FROM THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL
   CERTAINLY PLAY INTO WHERE REGIONS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL
   OCCUR. GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY
   IS FORECAST TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
   BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES AT LEAST REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.
   FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS OK TO THE E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO
   SERN CO...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ALSO APPEAR LIKELY.

   AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS...ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL
   AS NEAR DRYLINE/LEE-LOW...AND OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE IN CO...WILL ALL
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
   SIGNIFICANT STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH A CHANCE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES...SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS SHEAR
   STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING AND CONVECTION ROOTS INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   MAY LEAD TO RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...FURTHER SUPPORTING TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK. A WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY
   MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

   UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THAT WILL
   PLAY INTO DESTABILIZATION AND GREATER FOCUS FOR STRONG/INTENSE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   HOWEVER...PATTERN EVOLUTION INDICATES AN UPGRADED RISK AREA MAY BE
   NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

   ..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z