San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
108,290
2,910,112
Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
30 %
72,796
4,549,109
Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
15 %
177,381
11,414,704
Dallas, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
5 %
254,551
23,488,772
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...St. Louis, MO...
SPC AC 070620
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO SERN CO...MUCH OF
SRN KS AND WRN MO...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
SERN CO TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE COAST OF NERN SC AND
SERN NC...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST WILL
CROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A BELT OF 30-60KT CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW WILL PERSIST
FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST WHILE A HIGH OVER
LOW BLOCKING REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR/OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
THE DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE STREAM SYSTEM
NOW EJECTING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL SETTLE IN
QUASI-STATIONARY FASHION FROM MICHIGAN SWWD TO NEAR KS/OK
BORDER...AND THEN WWD/NWWD FROM KS TO SERN CO WHERE IT WILL LIE
ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE.
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACH OF MID/UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
INDUCE DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW FORMATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
/TX-OK PANHANDLE AREA AND POINTS ESE/ DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR FROM TX TO OK...AND NORTH INTO PARTS OF CO/KS AND MO
DURING THE DAY.
CIRCULATION OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE
THIS PERIOD. A MARGINAL TSTM WIND/ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT
MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME.
...SRN PLAINS...
SCENARIO ACROSS TX/OK APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE
PRESENCE OF NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGES UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SEGMENT OF A WEAKENING SUB-TROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT BASIN. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE AND LIKELY EXTEND IN POCKETS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. FURTHERMORE...LAPSE
RATE REGENERATION IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR DAY CONVECTIVE EPISODES
SHOULD BE EASILY ACHIEVED GIVEN FLOW REGIME EMANATING OFF THE HEATED
MEXICAN AND SRN ROCKIES ESCARPMENT.
CLUSTERS OF DECAYING/WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND MORNING MAXIMUM OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/CLOUDS FROM THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL
CERTAINLY PLAY INTO WHERE REGIONS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR. GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES AT LEAST REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.
FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS OK TO THE E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO
SERN CO...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ALSO APPEAR LIKELY.
AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS...ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL
AS NEAR DRYLINE/LEE-LOW...AND OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE IN CO...WILL ALL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH A CHANCE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES...SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS SHEAR
STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING AND CONVECTION ROOTS INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...FURTHER SUPPORTING TORNADO
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK. A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THAT WILL
PLAY INTO DESTABILIZATION AND GREATER FOCUS FOR STRONG/INTENSE STORM
DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PATTERN EVOLUTION INDICATES AN UPGRADED RISK AREA MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.
..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z