SPC AC 241730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BODY OF TX INTO WRN
   LA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
   MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
   OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AND OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
   TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
   WISCONSIN.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
   BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
   LARGER-SCALE WEAKER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
   STATES...PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED WINDS. AT
   THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
   PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

   THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
   REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW EXIST AND WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
   OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

   ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM KS
   INTO WI...NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH BUT ALSO BEHIND THE
   EXITING LEADING IMPULSE.

   ...TX...SRN OK...ARKLATEX...
   WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING
   RAINS...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH LITTLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. FORCING
   WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
   FLOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGE
   STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK...THEN INTO THE
   ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. HOWEVER...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS MERGE
   INTO CLUSTERS. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE CELLULAR...A FEW TORNADOES COULD
   OCCUR.

   ...KS INTO SRN WI...
   DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
   LEAD TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
   WIND DAMAGE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z