SPC AC 141731

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EWD
   INTO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE KS/OK VICINITY ENEWD
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
   W/ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER TX COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   U.S. FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY EXIST WITHIN A ZONE ENCOMPASSING
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SERN
   CONUS WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY EXTENDS
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS.  FARTHER W...A SPEED MAX
   WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC/NRN CA COAST EWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN/SNAKE VALLEY.  A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
   THE TX COAST FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN.

   ...MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   WLY FLOW FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC
   REGIONS WILL SERVE TO INCITE CORRIDORS OF ISOLD TO SCTD STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS.  A LARGE SUPPLY OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   RESIDE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SERN CONUS MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
   WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  STRONG HEATING
   SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS VOID OF CLOUD COVER BUT THE LACK OF AN
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
   DESTABILIZATION.  NONETHELESS...A BELT OF MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS/SPORADIC HAIL.  

   ...UT/ID/WRN WY...
   THE QUICK EWD TRANSLATION OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INTO THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN/SNAKE VALLEY WILL YIELD A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
   THE NRN UT/SRN ID REGION.  THE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT TROUGH/WIND
   SHIFT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THIS REGION PRIOR TO
   SUNSET AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  STRONG DIABATIC
   HEATING AND A RESERVOIR OF VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
   IN MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON.  STRENGTHENING
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEP
   0-3 KM LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY YIELD SOME ORGANIZED COLD POOL
   STRUCTURE AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

   ...CNTRL AND N-CNTRL ROCKIES...
   A FRONT INITIALLY OVER N-CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO SRN WY ON SUNDAY WILL
   SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
   ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY.  ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF A WIND/HAIL RISK.

   ...UPPER TX COAST...
   A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF WILL
   PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE.  A SPOUT/FUNNEL CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING/STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS ENLARGING THE
   HODOGRAPHS IN THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBED AREA. 
   PLEASE REFERENCE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR
   THE PROJECTED TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

   ..SMITH.. 06/14/2015

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