SPC AC 110559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI AND
   NERN IA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN MN INTO KY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
   WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH
   ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT. ALSO INFLUENCING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A WEAK-UPPER
   LOW ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS WILL EXIST E OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS
   INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AT 00Z...AND S OF A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT FROM
   CNTRL MN INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI. THE COMBINATION OF
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
   LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
   POTENTIAL MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

   OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH AN EARLY DISTURBANCE AND ONGOING CONVECTION ENTERING THE OH
   RIVER VALLEY.

   ...IL...IN...KY...OH...NRN TN...
   RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL AND
   INDIANA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITHIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND AIDED
   BY WARM ADVECTION VIA A WLY 850 MB JET. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
   UPSTREAM...WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS FEEDING INTO THE
   ONGOING ACTIVITY OR ALLOW NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP POSSIBLY ALONG
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RELATIVELY WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS OR SMALL
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

   OVERNIGHT...AS THE WLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...MORE STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS IL AND IND...WHICH WOULD BE AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE
   MN/WI/IA MCS. BY THIS TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LENGTHENED WITH A
   FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
   AIR MASS...EFFECTIVE INFLOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR THE GROUND...AND A
   BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ...ERN ND...MN...WRN WI...ERN IA LATE...
   A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS
   THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
   70S F BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR THE SEASON.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST INITIALLY OVER ERN ND AND WRN
   MN ALONG THE FRONT WHERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BEFORE 00Z. THEN...A
   RAPID INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED INTO MN
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EVOLVING ND ACTIVITY AND NEW STORMS ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   INITIALLY THEN MERGING INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AS FAR
   S AS NRN IL BY MONDAY MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLIER ACTIVITY WHILE STORM MODE REMAINS
   CELLULAR.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/11/2015

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