SPC AC 260526
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR NEWD TO UPPER OH VALLEY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
CNTRL U.S. TROUGH. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL
ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE OZARKS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
RAPIDLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFAVORABLE TIMING DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER OH-IND AND
LOWER 60S OVER KY/ WILL THEREBY LIMIT BUOYANCY AND ROOT PARCELS
ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER.
FARTHER S OVER THE NERN GULF COAST...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY WITH THE
INCREASED DISPLACEMENT FROM THE DISSIPATING THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN OFFSHORE AND/OR WEAKEN WHEN THE UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER LOWER
THETA-E FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING THE SURFACE LOW AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WILL DEFER A POSSIBLE
LOW PROBABILITY AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TORNADO/WIND GUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FL PANHANDLE COAST TO LATER
OUTLOOKS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF A MARGINALLY BUOYANT
AIRMASS INTO THE SC PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
MAY PERHAPS RESULT IN A STRONG STORM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..SMITH.. 10/26/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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