SPC AC 270552

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEAST STATES TO
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERGO MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD QUICKLY
   PROGRESS FROM THE KS/OK AREA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY
   THU. SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN ARCING OCCLUDING COLD FRONT
   SHOULD PUSH E ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTING
   TO ADVANCE N INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. 

   ...NORTHEAST TO CAROLINAS...
   BROADENING AND INTENSIFYING BELTS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS ARE
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING N-CNTRL
   CONUS TROUGH...YIELDING STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS.
   THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR
   ADVANCING FROM THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC COAST NWD. WITH SCATTERED
   TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
   12Z/WED WITHIN A LARGE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA...SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN RATHER LIMITED N/W OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL
   PLAIN. BUT WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
   HIGH SHEAR AND ROBUST FORCING FOR ASCENT...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE
   INTO SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS N THAT RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE INTO WED
   NIGHT...WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION FARTHER S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
   EXPANDED MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z