SPC AC 301726

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST EWD TO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...FROM E TX EWD INTO MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
   PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE A FAST NRN STREAM ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...THE
   MAIN SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE THE
   STRONG SRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE S CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES GRADUALLY EWD OUT ACROSS THE
   KS/OK/TX VICINITY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
   E TX/LA/MS VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WARM/MOIST AIR -- BUT ONLY
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE -- ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN
   AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...SERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE RISK AREA
   AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
   POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS E TX.  GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
   RAIN/CLOUD COVER...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE CAPE
   DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT -- PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS.  

   IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH
   TIME...AS A LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD/AWAY FROM THE REGION
   -- RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.  

   WITH THAT SAID...BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LA/MS AREA...AS THE WEAK
   FRONTAL WAVE LINGERS ALONG THE RATHER DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.  AS A
   RESULT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TRANSIENT
   LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES -- AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES
   NEAR PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.  OTHERWISE...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS --
   AND PARTICULARLY HAIL -- APPEARS RELATIVELY LIMITED DUE TO
   THERMODYNAMIC CONCERNS.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% RISK ACROSS
   THIS REGION...BUT WILL UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE MRGL AREA TO SLIGHT
   RISK TO COVER THE EVOLVING -- ALBEIT STILL LIMITED -- TORNADO RISK.

   ..GOSS.. 10/30/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z